第三回国際金融経済分析会合 – ポール・クルーグマン教授による議事録の簡易分析



consumption tax3
negative interest rates2
off the record1



  1. 発言者:ポール・クルーグマン教授/Prof. Krugman
    『Fiscal policy. Everything we have seen for the past seven years suggests that fiscal
    policy remains effective, especially effective in these circumstances. It has been very
    difficult to apply it, a few years of bad debt, political conflict, the Europe is divided
    among counties, the United States is divided between parties, but fiscal policy is
    effective and the global environment right now is one where economies really, really
    need fiscal support. The idea that one should be prioritizing long-run budget issue over
    fiscal support now seems to me to be extremely misguided. Obviously I am talking about
    the consumption tax here.』


  2. 発言者:安倍内閣総理大臣/PM Abe
    『Well, talking about Japan, in 2014, the consumption tax rate was raised from 5% to 8%.
    There was a last minute demand which came in. So right after that, we had seen a
    dampening effect on consumptions. We are still having a lingering effect. We are
    thinking about the further rise in the consumption tax rate which was deferred by one
    year and a half but in case of Europe, as for the VAT raise, maybe in the European
    situation, the impact was not as large as that in Japan. Why such a big impact in
    Japan? Because deflation continued for a 20 year period. Moreover, it is not a deflation
    situation anymore but we have not completely gotten out of the deflation. Do you think
    that is the reason that we are stuck with this kind of situation?』

    それでは日本についてお話しますと2014年に消費税が5パーセントから8パーセントに引き上げられました。それを受けて駆け込み需要がありました。その後直ぐに消費の抑制効果を経験しました。我々は未だ長引くその影響下にあります。我々は1年半延期した消費税のさらなる引き上げを検討しています。しかしヨーロッパの場合、VAT( http://eumag.jp/feature/b0515/ )引き上げの影響は日本のように大きくはありませんでした。どうして日本ではその様に大きな影響があったのでしょう?デフレが20年に渡って続いたからです。加えてもはやデフレ的状況ではありませんが、しかし完全にデフレから脱してはいません。この様な状況に行き詰まっている理由はそれが理由だとお考えですか?

  3. 発言者:ポール・クルーグマン教授/Prof. Krugman
    Negative interest rates, it is remarkable that that turns out to be possible. I do think it was the right move to make but it is very hard to push it further. The effects are proving to be limited.』


  4. 発言者:安倍内閣総理大臣/PM Abe
    『But we worry
    about the accumulated debt. That is a source of another concern. What to do about it? But Governor Kuroda took a policy to introduce negative interest rates so that the 10
    year JGBs yield turns negative at the moment.
    So, we would like to take advantage of this situation and Japan should come up with a
    fiscal spending. That is what some of the people are saying right now within Japan.』


  5. 発言者:安倍内閣総理大臣/PM Abe
    『After all, this is off the record, Germany has
    the greatest space for a fiscal mobility. Going forward, I plan to visit Germany. So, I will
    have to talk to them and I will have to persuade them how they will come along with the
    policy for further fiscal mobilization. Is there any idea from you?』